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The Prospects for Post-Pandemic Economic Development are under Discussion in EEC

The Prospects for Post-Pandemic Economic Development are under Discussion in EEC

11/30/2020

The crisis engendered by the COVID-19 pandemics has catalyzed the structural changes in the world economy, thus, providing a spur for establishing a core for new scientific, technological and world economic paradigm. In this environment, the prompt elaboration of government stabilization measures is as important as never before. This thesis has become the major topic of the international macroeconomic seminar “COVID-19 Pandemics: World Economy Symptomatic and Treatment” held by the Eurasian Economic Commission in cooperation with the Interstate Bank.


The Seminar has commenced with the welcoming remarks by Sergei Glazyev, Member of the Board (Minister) in charge of Integration and Macroeconomics, and Igor Suvorov, President of the Interstate Bank. In their speeches, there has been admitted the structural character of the COVID-19 crisis consequences for further economic and social development.

The first group of issues considered during the Seminar has aimed at discovering what “new normal” in the world economy is going to be like and what it might be followed by in the EAEU Member States.

Igor Paunovic, Head of Globalization and Development Strategies Unit at UNCTAD has presented the scenarios of the world economy development in the aftermath of the pandemics. According to him, the recovery in the world economy is much more likely to follow “K” rather than “V” or “U” pattern, i.e. income growth for the wealthiest along with the deteriorated quality of life of those most in need, which is undoubtedly going to result in aggravated inequalities.

Nobuya Haraguchi, Chief of Research and Industrial Policy Advice Division at UNIDO has described the scope of the crisis from the perspective of shifts in industrial value added. “As compared to 2008 financial crisis, during the COVID-19 pandemics, the industrial production experiences sharper decline. Nevertheless, so far, we have witnessed a quicker recovery as well,” – he noted.

The consequent presentations have been focused on the challenges and prospects that the COVID-19 has engendered for the regional integration.

From the perspective of Yaroslav Lisovolik, Valdai Discussion Club Program Director: “Similarly to the independent states, it is not enough for the regional integration associations to continue “business as usual” until the next economic crisis. What is needed is to elaborate the mechanisms of response and cooperation during the crises in advance”.

Lilia Aleksanyan, Asian Development Bank Regional Cooperation and Operations Division Economist (Central and West Asia Department) has shed the light on the peculiarities of economic recovery in the countries of Caucasus and Central Asia, where the fiscal space has already been limited prior to the crisis. Elaborating on the analysis of the pandemics consequences in Asia, Mia Mikic, Head of Trade, Investment and Innovation Division at the UN ESCAP, has highlighted the directions of prospective global value chains reshuffling guided by the aim to improve resilience.

Liudmila Simonova, Head of Centre for Economic Research at Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Latin America has announced the assessments of the deepness of COVID-19 crisis consequences in the region of Latin America and the Caribbean. She has emphasized that the marked differences among the regional integration associations’ member states are evident from the perspective of outcomes’ deepness, nature of the measures, as well as the preparedness to coordinate actions.

Erik Ashimov, Deputy Secretary-General of Shanghai Cooperation Organization has noticed the increased role of intra-SCO cooperation following the outbreak of the crisis. “We admit the significant increase in demand for the SCO as an efficient platform for elaborating joint measures to overcome political, socioeconomic, epidemiological consequences of the pandemics in line with the principles of the Shanghai Spirit”, - he said.

Dmitry Belousov, Head of Analysis and Forecasting of Macroeconomic Processes Section at Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, has advocated the thesis that the financial and monetary systems’ regionalization has not been implemented. In the current environment, technological development based on the Member States’ competitive advances is an inalienable prerequisite for ensuring financial sovereignty.

The presentations of the closing part of the Seminar have been devoted to the advances in projects on sustainable development. The speakers have highlighted that despite the crisis, the principles of sustainable and responsible corporative policy have been retaining their importance.

Presenting the Interstate Program of Innovative Cooperation among the CIS Countries up to the Year of 2030, Michael Bryuhanov, Deputy Head of Rossotrudnichestvo (Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States Affairs, Compatriots Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation), has characterized the spheres of innovations, information technologies, communication, biomedical technologies, ecology, transport, space research, alternative energetics, and education as the particular spurs for cooperation.

Alexander Averchenkov, Head of the UNDP Office for Support of Partnership in Russian Federation, has informed the participants on the advances of Trust Fund in shortlisting the projects to be implemented in the CIS region. To illustrate, the Trust Fund Council has recently approved nine initiatives, here including the project on strengthening local communities in the selected regions of the Republic of Armenia.

Anna Zolotorevskaya, Head of Sustainable Development Guild at Moscow Chamber of Commerce and Industry has observed that the crisis has not led to the halt in the operations of the First Social Stock Exchange established on the MCCI platform. The Exchange promotes responsible corporate policy via adopting social responsibility criteria while allocating financial resources.

In the concluding presentation, Annette Kyobe, Permanent Representative of the International Monetary Fund in Russian Federation, has designated the most urgent trends and indicators of economic development in the world countries and the EAEU during the pandemics, as well as the IMF economic forecasts update. She has accented that despite the prompt policy response, this is not only the short-run, but middle-run macroeconomic dynamics as well that the crisis might have a deterrent effect on.

Delivering the closing statement, Sergei Glazyev has highlighted that the recovery from the recession must not be instantaneous for all the world countries. In this vein, the importance of international partnership reinforcement gains momentum.