The crisis engendered by the COVID-19 pandemics
has catalyzed the structural changes in the world economy, thus, providing a
spur for establishing a core for new scientific, technological and world
economic paradigm. In this environment, the prompt elaboration of government stabilization
measures is as important as never before. This thesis has become the major
topic of the international macroeconomic seminar “COVID-19 Pandemics: World
Economy Symptomatic and Treatment” held by the Eurasian Economic Commission in
cooperation with the Interstate Bank.
The Seminar has commenced with the welcoming
remarks by Sergei Glazyev, Member of
the Board (Minister) in charge of Integration and Macroeconomics, and Igor Suvorov, President of the
Interstate Bank. In their speeches, there has been admitted the structural
character of the COVID-19 crisis consequences for further economic and social
development.
The first group of issues considered during the
Seminar has aimed at discovering what “new normal” in the world economy is
going to be like and what it might be followed by in the EAEU Member States.
Igor Paunovic, Head of Globalization and
Development Strategies Unit at UNCTAD has presented the scenarios of the world
economy development in the aftermath of the pandemics. According to him, the
recovery in the world economy is much more likely to follow “K” rather than “V”
or “U” pattern, i.e. income growth for the wealthiest along with the
deteriorated quality of life of those most in need, which is undoubtedly going
to result in aggravated inequalities.
Nobuya Haraguchi, Chief
of Research and Industrial Policy Advice Division at UNIDO has described the
scope of the crisis from the perspective of shifts in industrial value added. “As compared to 2008 financial crisis, during
the COVID-19 pandemics, the industrial production experiences sharper decline.
Nevertheless, so far, we have witnessed a quicker recovery as well,” – he
noted.
The consequent presentations have been focused
on the challenges and prospects that the COVID-19 has engendered for the
regional integration.
From the perspective of Yaroslav Lisovolik, Valdai Discussion Club Program Director: “Similarly to the independent states, it is
not enough for the regional integration associations to continue “business as
usual” until the next economic crisis. What is needed is to elaborate the
mechanisms of response and cooperation during the crises in advance”.
Lilia Aleksanyan, Asian Development Bank Regional
Cooperation and Operations Division Economist (Central and West Asia
Department) has shed the light on
the peculiarities of economic recovery in the countries of Caucasus and Central
Asia, where the fiscal space has already been limited prior to the crisis.
Elaborating on the analysis of the pandemics consequences in Asia, Mia Mikic, Head of Trade, Investment
and Innovation Division at the UN ESCAP, has highlighted the directions of
prospective global value chains reshuffling guided by the aim to improve
resilience.
Liudmila Simonova, Head of Centre for Economic
Research at Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Latin America has
announced the assessments of the deepness of COVID-19 crisis consequences in
the region of Latin America and the Caribbean. She has emphasized that the
marked differences among the regional integration associations’ member states
are evident from the perspective of outcomes’ deepness, nature of the measures,
as well as the preparedness to coordinate actions.
Erik Ashimov, Deputy Secretary-General of Shanghai
Cooperation Organization has noticed the increased role of intra-SCO
cooperation following the outbreak of the crisis. “We admit the significant
increase in demand for the SCO as an efficient platform for elaborating joint
measures to overcome political, socioeconomic, epidemiological consequences of
the pandemics in line with the principles of the Shanghai Spirit”, - he said.
Dmitry Belousov, Head of Analysis and Forecasting of
Macroeconomic Processes Section at Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and
Short-Term Forecasting, has advocated the thesis that the financial and
monetary systems’ regionalization has not been implemented. In the current
environment, technological development based on the Member States’ competitive
advances is an inalienable prerequisite for ensuring financial sovereignty.
The presentations of the closing part of the
Seminar have been devoted to the advances in projects on sustainable
development. The speakers have highlighted that despite the crisis, the
principles of sustainable and responsible corporative policy have been
retaining their importance.
Presenting the Interstate Program of Innovative
Cooperation among the CIS Countries up to the Year of 2030, Michael Bryuhanov, Deputy Head of Rossotrudnichestvo
(Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States Affairs, Compatriots
Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation), has characterized
the spheres of innovations, information technologies, communication, biomedical
technologies, ecology, transport, space research, alternative energetics, and
education as the particular spurs for cooperation.
Alexander Averchenkov, Head of the UNDP Office for
Support of Partnership in Russian Federation, has informed the participants on
the advances of Trust Fund in shortlisting the projects to be implemented in
the CIS region. To illustrate, the Trust Fund Council has recently approved
nine initiatives, here including the project on strengthening local communities
in the selected regions of the Republic of Armenia.
Anna Zolotorevskaya, Head of Sustainable Development
Guild at Moscow Chamber of Commerce and Industry has observed that the crisis
has not led to the halt in the operations of the First Social Stock Exchange
established on the MCCI platform. The Exchange promotes responsible corporate
policy via adopting social responsibility criteria while allocating financial
resources.
In the concluding presentation, Annette Kyobe, Permanent
Representative of the International Monetary Fund in Russian Federation, has
designated the most urgent trends and indicators of economic development in the
world countries and the EAEU during the pandemics, as well as the IMF economic
forecasts update. She has accented that despite the prompt policy response,
this is not only the short-run, but middle-run macroeconomic dynamics as well
that the crisis might have a deterrent effect on.
Delivering the closing statement, Sergei Glazyev has highlighted that the
recovery from the recession must not be instantaneous for all the world
countries. In this vein, the importance of international partnership
reinforcement gains momentum.