I. Spheres of the EAEU Economy Disposing of the High Integration Potential
The Decision of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council No. 28 of October 16, 2015 (clause 3) has authorized the Commission to elaborate, in cooperation with the member states, the methodology to identify the spheres of the EAEU economies disposing of the high integration potential (as envisaged by the Treaty on the EAEU), as well as measures aimed at leveraging it. In line, the Protocol on Conducting of Coordinated Macroeconomic Policy (Annex No. 14 to the Treaty on the EAEU; clause 3) stipulates that the member states coordinate the measures aimed at leveraging the EAEU integration potential and their economies’ competitive advantages in the spheres and sectors of the economy where it is necessary or expedient.
Based on the criteria envisaged by the Main Directions of the EAEU Economic Development (section VI), the Commission has developed 7 approaches to determining the spheres of the EAEU economy disposing of the high integration potential:
- The presence of and (or) the potential for the multiplier effect;
- High expediency of and (or) the potential for import substitution following the intensified cooperation of the member states;
- High potential for increasing and diversifying exports to the third countries;
- The prospects for increasing the supply of goods and services to the domestic market due to deeper specialization and the fulfillment of the member states’ competitive advantages;
- The prospects for intensifying the Member States’ presence in the international value chains and production chains within the Union;
- The opportunity of transferring from the catching-up to technology-based development thus, achieving advanced pace of economic development (the formation of "industries of the future");
- High degree of government regulation and (or) government participation.
To comply with the instruction following the 7th meeting of the Advisory Committee on Macroeconomic Policy (February 29, 2016), the Commission has prepared a report "Economic sectors with integration potential in the Eurasian Economic Union, and measures aimed at its use", including a description of the methodology and the results of its implementation. The order of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council No 2 of March 7, 2017 No. 2 has recommended to take into account the results of the report in the framework of interaction with the EAEU member states.
The identification of the spheres of the high integration potential has made it possible to form scientifically and economically sound conclusions on industries, sectors of the economy, product groups and service sectors subject to the most pronounced growth and development effects following the deepened integration. The research outcomes have been considered while discussing the most promising areas of cooperation among the member states and elaborating the joint measures for their development.
The adoption of the Main Directions’ criteria as a basis for the classification of methodological approaches will ensure that the integration measures will have targeted effect on the economic sectors accounting for both the strategic goals (increase exports, alleviate import dependency, accumulate supplies to the domestic market, etc.) and the EAEU member states interests.
II. Integration Level and Depth Assessment
System of integration indicators of the Eurasian Economic Commission
Aiming at assessing the depth of integration within regional integration associations and implementing international comparisons, the EEC has developed a methodological approach including the instruments to measure the integration level in a regional association as a whole, as well as in common markets for goods, services, capital, and labor.
III. Assessment of the Effects of Integration
The EEC has been deeply engaged in the assessment of ex-ante and ex-post integration effects. The former effects have already been fulfilled in form of the integration achievements; the latter ones ensure the integration potential.
In 2014, the EEC has implemented the analysis of barriers to the formation of the common economic space, as well as exemptions and restrictions on the movement of goods, services, capital and labor. The first stage has included a large-scale survey of 530 enterprises in Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. The second stage has envisaged the simulation of the impact of removing obstacles in the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space on the member states socioeconomic development under several scenarios. The results of the survey and the simulation analysis are presented in the following reports.
The report "Assessing the Impact of NTBs in the EAEU: Results of an Enterprise Survey" (Russian)
The report "Assessment of the Economic Effects of Eliminating NTBs in the EAEU" (Russian)
In 2015, the EEC presented an analytical report on the progress in removing barriers to the formation of the CES, as well as exemptions and restrictions on the movement of goods, services, capital and labor. The report introduced the concepts of classifying the obstacles as "barriers", "exemptions" and "restrictions" provided the specifics of the Eurasian economic integration. Besides, the report reveals the nature of the barriers, exemptions and restrictions, the quantitative assessment of the impact of obstacles on mutual trade and its elimination. Based on the results of the analysis, the report formulates conceptual proposals for organizing work to ensure the functioning of the CES, as a rule, without exceptions and restrictions from the date of entry into force of the Treaty on the Union.
The report "On the progress in the elimination of barriers impeding the functioning of the internal market of the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as exemptions and restrictions on the movement of goods, services, capital and labor" (Russian)